06 April, 2023

World: Barley crop 2022 trade appears to be over, markets waiting for resolution of Australia/China trade dispute

Malting barley crop 2022 trade appears to be over, with sellers willing to sell residual stocks but end users are completely absent from the market, RMI Analytics said in their latest report.

Prices are mixed, with most regions down but with one exception: Australia, which is showing some price strength.

Overall, the global malting barley price direction is downward as the correction from the 2022 peak continues with Australia still the low cost origin but now shifting higher. Other origins (France, Argentina, Canada) are weaker on good crop development in Europe and the likely resolution of the China/Australia trade dispute.

The global barley trade is watching with great interest the developments regarding the barley tariff dispute between the two nations. The Chinese tariff implementation in May 2020 disrupted global barley trade flows and remains true today. However, signs are appearing of a resolution of the trade dispute before the WTO investigation proceeds formally. Barley prices are already shifting in anticipation of a resolution (Aussie prices up, rest of world down) but the timing of any deal and implementation remains uncertain, the analysts said.

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